By Jeff Arnold
Games:
#1-Villanova vs. #16-Lafayette
#8-North Carolina State vs. #9-LSU
#5-Northern Iowa vs. #12-Wyoming
#4-Louisville vs. #13-UC Irvine
#6-Providence vs. #11-Boise State/Dayton
#3-Oklahoma vs. #14-Albany
#7-Michigan State vs. #10-Georgia
#2-Virginia vs. #15-Belmont
Three Games to Watch:
#7-Michigan State vs. #10-Georgia
Michigan State in March is one of the scariest things in college sports. Tom Izzo is one of the best coaches in college basketball and regularly brings teams without NBA talent to Final Fours. This year’s team is no different. Although Travis Trice, Denzel Valentine, and Branden Dawson are solid college players in their own right, they are not world beaters and have shown to be inconsistent this season. The Spartans should have won the Big Ten tournament but ultimately choked away the game to Wisconsin. They now can either live in the past and roll over to a talented and determined Georgia team, or persevere and make a classic Izzo-led run deep into the tournament. The Spartans’ fate will most likely be sealed by how Valentine plays. Even though Trice leads the team in scoring, Valentine is the one who has the capability to take over games due to match up problems. I like Michigan State to win a close one here.
#2-Virginia vs. #15-Belmont
In 2012, two #15 seeds took down #2 seeds. In 2013, one did and they went to the Sweet Sixteen. If you’re going to pick a 15/2 line upset, this is the one to pick. Why? Because even though defense wins championships, that mentality can betray you in the tournament. Belmont is by no means a great team but behind the scoring and hot shooting of Craig Bradshaw they can keep it close for enough of the game to force Virginia to execute on the offensive end. Virginia is not bad offensively, but they have struggled to put up points and match high scoring teams when their defense breaks down. This was extremely evident in the UNC loss in the ACC tournament where Justin Jackson and Marcus Paige had their way and it was up to Malcolm Brogdon to carry the Cavaliers. I’m not going to pick Virginia to lose here, but I wouldn’t be shocked and because of that I don’t think they will make a deep run this season.
#5-Northern Iowa vs. #12-Wyoming
Northern Iowa is an under-the-radar team that will be interesting to watch in this first round matchup with a clearly inferior Wyoming team. In no way should Wyoming win this game. Northern Iowa is a balanced team that is extremely efficient shooting the ball and also strong defensively. If you were to put this team in a power conference I think they would finish comfortably in the top half. On top of being a complete team, Seth Tuttle is one of the best big men in college basketball and a fantastic asset. So why is this a game to watch if Northern Iowa is this good? Well, for starters, they’re fun to watch so, unless there’s an absolute barn burner on during this game, tuning in would be a good idea just for pure entertainment value. On top of that it will be interesting to see how they handle themselves in the tournament against not terrible teams. Outside of Wichita State and VCU, the Panthers have not played another tournament teams so no one really knows if they have the type of poise to make a decent run. Considering all of this, Northern Iowa is the clear pick here, but this game is still high on my watch list.
Other Storylines:
How Terrible this Region Is: I’ve never hated a Region more than this one. I don’t like Villanova and don’t think they really have any shot to win a title. Virginia, is boring. Disciplined and talented, but extremely boring nonetheless. I honestly don’t know how Oklahoma got a #3 seed. Louisville isn’t that great this season (save, the beast that is Montrezl Harrell), but, because they’re Louisville, they’ll most likely give Villanova a scare if they make it that far. To recap, the top four seeds all have major flaws and the fifth has played a grand total of three games against tournament teams. This should be fun.
Dayton in a Play-In Game in Dayton: I honestly feel bad for Boise State. Are they technically in the tournament? Yes, but in order to be a part of the field of 64, they have to win a true road game against Dayton on their home floor. It’s unfortunately unavoidable in this case but for future reference that should be avoided at all costs. If the NCAA was a self-respecting, proactive organization they would already be thinking of ways to prevent this from happening again but that’s not happening. It’s the NCAA’s world and we’re all just in it.
Picks (winner in bold):
#1-Villanova vs. #16-Lafayette
#8-North Carolina State vs. #9-LSU
#5-Northern Iowa vs. #12-Wyoming
#4-Louisville vs. #13-UC Irvine
#6-Providence vs. #11-Boise State/Dayton
#3-Oklahoma vs. #14-Albany
#7-Michigan State vs. #10-Georgia
#2-Virginia vs. #15-Belmont
