By Jeff Arnold

After a hard-fought win over the Baltimore Ravens, many Patriots fans are all but booking their flights and hotel rooms to Arizona for a seemingly guaranteed Super Bowl berth. With just one team standing in their way from a sixth appearance in the last 14 years, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are on the cusp of having another shot at history. From here on in if every player does his job and executes the gameplan it is almost too easy to say that Brady and Belichick will get their fourth rings in a little under three weeks. The thing is, if it seems too easy, that’s probably because it is. That’s not to say that this team doesn’t have a solid shot at another Super Bowl victory, but to say that they are anywhere close to the favorites is ridiculous.

Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts cannot be overlooked. In week 11 the Patriots blew out the Colts behind a once-in-a-lifetime game out of Jonas Grey. Brady played well, yet still threw two interceptions and the defense contained the explosive playmaking abilities of Luck to the tune of two touchdowns and one interception. Despite the lopsided final score (42-20), this game wasn’t actually much of a blowout. Luck had a higher passer rating than Brady (90.0 to Brady’s 85.0), threw for 46 more yards, and matced Brady with two touchdown passes. The only thing that made this game look so unbalanced was the other-worldy performance out of Jonas Grey who, ironically, was inactive against the Ravens this past Saturday and has not had much of an impact since that performance against the Colts.

Adding on to the fact that the run game (not just Jonas Grey, but also LeGarrette Blount) has been less than stellar recently is the fact that this Patriots team has failed to show any real improvement or growth as the season has progressed. The team that took the field on Saturday is nowhere near as good as the one that won seven games in a row in the middle of the season. The defense hasn’t been as sharp, the offensive line has continued to be a liability, and the aforementioned running attack has been underwhelming at best (just consider the fact that the Patriots’ leading rusher, Grey, was 47th in the league for total rushing yards and 687 yards from being in the top ten).

You could counter all this by saying that Brady has still been playing spectacularly and can lead the team despite having a lackluster receiving core and atrocious offensive line; however, how valid is this argument when you consider that the Patriots, despite always being in contention, haven’t won a Super Bowl in 11 years and have failed to win an AFC title game since 2011? Not very is the answer. As an unbiased fan you can’t say that Brady still has the type of skill set to take over a game. By this point in his career he is, on his best days, a high level game management quarterback who, when playing tougher secondaries, will struggle. This isn’t extremely relevant when looking at the impending match up against a Colts secondary that was in the bottom third in the league in terms of total interceptions during the regular season; however, that being said, if the Patriots advance to the Super Bowl and have to face Seattle, they could be in deep trouble because of the difficulty that most quarterbacks have with passing the ball against the league’s best defense.

The Patriots have turned into a the team version of Peyton Manning; dominant in the regular season, bad in the playoffs. All of this is not to say that the Patriots are going to lose this coming Sunday; however, for Pats fans who have already put them in the Super Bowl, this is evidence that over-confidence can lead to defeat. Even if they do get past Indy, they still have to face a team that either A.) beat them in the regular season while they were on that hot streak or B.) the defending Super Bowl Champions that seems unbeatable as of now. The Patriots’ road to another Super Bowl victory is short yet extremely daunting and I don’t see a way, barring any major injury for an opposing team, that Brady and Belichick get their fourth rings.