By: Jeff Arnold
It’s that time of year again. Time for upsets, buzzer-beaters, busted brackets, and more than a few Cinderella stories. 68 teams enter, only one will be crowned victorious as a National Champion.
The most intriguing possible upsets are ones between #5 and #12 seeds.
#5 vs. #12 Match-ups:
#5 VCU vs. #12 Stephen F. Austin: VCU has arrived yet again at the tournament flying slightly under the radar with a solid squad led by coach Shaka Smart and junior guard Treveon Graham. Stephen F. Austin comes in as hot as any other team in the country. The Lumberjacks have not lost since November 23, are on a 28 game win streak, and have a penal combination of efficient offense and a turnover-forcing defense. Although VCU is favored, they will be missing their third leading scorer, Melvin Johnson, who is out with a sprained knee. Overall, this could be another 12-5 upset, but I still like VCU because of Smart’s tournament coaching experience.
#5 Cincinnati vs. #12 Harvard: Cincinnati comes in off another solid season led by senior guard Sean Kilpatrick. Despite a very good start, the Bearcats have dropped three of their past six games including two losses to fellow tournament team, Connecticut. Harvard on the other hand has won their last eight games and are upset-minded after knocking off New Mexico in the first round last year. If Cincinnati can keep from looking ahead and stay in the moment they should have a solid chance of moving on. Big time trap game, but I’ll still take the Bearcats.
#5 Oklahoma vs. #12 North Dakota State: Oklahoma continued to build on recent success this season with a 23-9 overall record and a 12-6 one in conference. Most of these losses came to tournament teams or were closely contested road games. North Dakota State also is continuing to build on success the success they have had the last two years, making the Tournament as a #14 and #13 seed in 2012 and 2013 respectively. NDSU hasn’t won a game in the tournament yet but I think that changes against Oklahoma. They’re combination of good shot selection and good rebounding should limit the amount of Sooner possessions and keep them from driving the pace up. Add in the weak Sooner defense and I’ll take North Dakota State to upset Oklahoma.
#5 St. Louis vs. #12 NC State: St. Louis comes into the tournament in the middle of a skid losing four of their last five games after getting the year off to a stellar start winning 19 straight before the beginning of the current rough patch. NC State on the other hand has been fighting all year. After dropping back to back games to end February and begin March, they reeled off four straight wins before falling to Duke in the ACC Tournament. They’re win in the play-in game over Xavier was very convincing however, with sophomore standout forward TJ Warren pouring in 16 of his 25 points in the second half. Overall, I love NC State. TJ Warren is an animal when he gets hot and considering St. Louis’ struggles of late I think he will have his way with them.
Final Picks: VCU, Cincinnati, North Dakota State, NC State
Random facts:
In the last 29 years #5 seeds have won all four match-ups only three times.
Since 2008, #5 and #12 seeds have split their 24 games, including #12’s winning three of the four last year.***
***Facts and stats based on nightly-updated ESPN pages
