by:  Ryan Guilbeau

Every year, millions of people across the country and beyond fill out their NCAA basketball brackets for March Madness, a 68 team, single elimination tournament. March Madness is home to some of the biggest upsets in sports, since every match-up is decided by only one game. March Madness is at its craziest in my opinion during the round of 64 because there are 16 games each day for the two days. So if you’re a basketball fan, you’ll feel like a kid on Christmas morning during March Madness.

The biggest two favorites to win it all this year are Virginia and Villanova. Teams like Duke, Kansas, UNC, Michigan State, and Cincinnati are also teams that have higher odds than most to win.

Virginia is the number one team in the country with a record of 31-2.  They are ACC champs, have what most consider the best defense in the country, and their star guard Kyle Guy leads their offense with very few turnovers and a good three point percentage. This is certainly a very intimidating resume for Virginia, and they are the favorite to win this year’s tournament.

However, a close second is Villanova. Led by guard Jalen Brunson, the Wildcats are the one seed in the East region and are 30-4. Villanova has one of the most efficient offenses in the country and has a lot of recent tournament experience, winning the whole tournament in 2016. There are plenty of other teams with a shot at winning it all, but Virginia and Villanova are by far the two biggest favorites.

Every year, there are at least one or two games that bust people’s brackets early. For example, I and many others picked Michigan State to cut down the nets in 2016. They were beaten by Middle Tennessee in the very first round. March Madness is famous for its upsets, and I can nearly guarantee you there will be upsets this year as well.

From the South region, I would keep your eye on #12 seed Davidson. They are 10-2 in their last 12 games, and just won the Atlantic 10 title. They are playing Kentucky in the first round who has a lot of tournament experience, but they are 7-5 in their last 12, which isn’t great. Also, only four times since 1985 has a #12 seed failed to beat a #5 seed in the tournament, so it’s likely that at least one #12 seed wins. I think that 12 seed could very possibly be Davidson.

In the West region, I could see #11 seed San Diego State as a bracket buster. They have won nine straight games, so they are rolling into the tournament hot. They are also 3-1 this year against top 25 teams, which is fantastic. Their opponent, Houston, is a top 25 team ranked at #18 in the RPI rankings, so I wouldn’t be too surprised if San Diego State pulled this upset off.

In the East Region, watch out for #12 seed Murray State. They have won 13 straight games, and rely on the three point shot. They are shooting very well from downtown this season, and they are also one of the nation’s best teams in defending the three pointer. Teams that take a lot of threes can beat any team at any time, so they could certainly make a Cinderella run.

Out of the Midwest Region, #13 seed Charleston could pull off an upset against #4 seed Auburn. Even though Auburn is definitely a better team by the numbers, a huge part of March Madness is what teams are hot, and which are cold. Auburn has lost three of their last four games, while Charleston has won 14 of their last 15.

Moving on from Charleston, if Penn pulled off an upset against Kansas, it would be the biggest upset in tournament history. In March Madness history, a #16 seed has never beaten a #1 seed.  Number one seeds are 132-0 against #16 seeds. However, critics are saying Penn is the best #16 seed in tournament history. Kansas may also not have center Udoka Azubuike back for the game after spraining his knee. I’m not saying this is likely to happen, but if a #16 seed were to ever beat a #1 seed, I think this would be the game for it to occur.

If this is your first time making a bracket, here are some tips. First of all, don’t be sad when your bracket isn’t perfect. Because it won’t be. Out of the millions of brackets created, there hasn’t been a perfect one. So if you get broken down emotionally every time one of your teams lose, the second half of March is going to feel really long.

Also, like I said earlier–only four times since 1985 has a #12 seed failed to beat a #5 seed in the tournament, so I would pick at least one #12 seed to advance to the round of 32.

Since 2014, #13 seeds only have one win against #4 seeds. So even though upsets happen all the time, they haven’t been happening in those matchups.

Where the upsets have been happening, however, is in #6 versus #11 seed games. Number eleven seeds have won at least three out of the four meetings with #6 seeds in consecutive years for the first time ever. So if history repeats itself, I would have some #11 seeds advancing.

My final tip is even though Kansas, Duke, and Michigan State are all great teams with legitimate chances to win the tournament, I think it’s very risky to pick one of them. This is because all of them are in the Midwest Region. This means only one of the three can advance to the final four, and there isn’t really a team that stands out from the three as they’re all pretty even.

March is here, so fill out your brackets, choose wisely, and get ready for the madness!

Sources:

www.ESPN.com (while making picks in a brakcet, you can click on the breakdown of the matchup, which is where I got the information from) and https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-march-madness-predictions/